10-14-2014 Updates

No Ebola in Richmond, Virginia. Still one suspected case. http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/local/city-of-richmond/richmond-patient-being-evaluated-for-ebola/article_cb28d73a-5320-11e4-97f5-0017a43b2370.html /  http://wtvr.com/2014/10/14/ebola-richmond-test-results/

Boyfriend of Nina Pham in Quarantine for suspected Ebola: http://youngcons.com/breaking-horrible-news-for-the-boyfriend-of-the-ebola-nurse/

Death in Germany from Ebola: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29611713

Total Deaths Worldwide Updated: 4447

Total Cases Worldwide Updated: 8914

Added Live Ebola News Section

W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises

Video | W.H.O. Update on Ebola Epidemic Dr. Bruce Aylward, the World Health Organization’s assistant director general, said the number of Ebola cases worldwide will rise above 9,000 this week.
By RICK GLADSTONE and NICK CUMMING-BRUCE
October 14, 2014

The World Health Organization reported sobering new figures Tuesday about the Ebola outbreak ravaging West Africa, saying the mortality rate had risen to 70 percent and that the number of new cases could reach 10,000 per week by December.

The organization had been saying that the number of new cases was about 1,000 per week for the past four weeks, and that the mortality rate for Ebola had been around 50 percent.

The updated figures were provided by Dr. Bruce Aylward, the health organization’s assistant director general, during a telephone news conference from its Geneva headquarters.

He also said that as of Tuesday, the total number of Ebola cases over the course of the epidemic had reached 8,914, with 4,447 deaths. The vast majority are in the three most afflicted countries: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Read more

Ebola Virus Disease Electron Micrograph

Why Can’t We Have More ‘Magic’ Blood for Ebola?


Read more

Ebola death toll ‘rises to 4,447′

Health workers in protective equipment near Rokupa Hospital, Freetown on 6 October 2014.The WHO says a slowdown in the rate of new cases in some areas may be due to behavioural changes

The death toll from the Ebola virus outbreak has risen to 4,447, with the large majority of victims in West Africa, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.

WHO assistant director-general Bruce Aylward also said there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week within two months if efforts were not stepped up,

But the rate of new infections in some areas has slowed down, he added. Read more

How Can Ebola Enter the United States?

Marine Corps Gen. John Kelly, commander of the U.S. Southern Command believes that a spread to Ebola to central and South America can create a “mass migration” of Ebola patients into the United States

“If it breaks out, it’s literally, ‘Katie bar the door,’ and there will be mass migration into the United States,”

“They will run away from Ebola, or if they suspect they are infected, they will try to get to the United States for treatment.

“The potential spread of Ebola into Central and Southern America is a real possibility,”

As he predicted, there is very little hope for containing the disease in West Africa if we continue on our existing path.

If Ebola spreads to countries Guatemala, El Salvador or Honduras with an already poor medical system

“It will cause panic, and people will flee the region,”

Not only is this a problem if people decide to seek treatment, but it can also begin to include transnational criminal networks to start smuggling people into the United States who are infected with Ebola.

Hopefully, this disease doesn’t spread to other countries. Period.

What are the True Ebola Outbreak Numbers?

As an example, you can calculate the true numbers using this method:

Calculate for a more accurate number would be to get the total amount of cases and add a x2.5 multiplier in the highly affected West African countries: Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea (as that is what the CDC/WHO have stated as under reported to corrected multiplier of cases). The 2.5 multiplier will stay till cases stop being exponential.

2.5 x stated here: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/previe…

It has also been known that Sierra Leone and other countries are under reporting deaths to reduce panic and the mortality rate is slowly dropping over time which makes no sense because it was about 80% at the start and slowly dropping to 45%. I would use MSF/Doctors without borders cases to deaths as a correct mortality rate:

https://twitter.com/StefZannin…

They reported: 1408 confirmed and 342 survived which is around a 75% mortality rate even with care. So I would set the mortality rate at a static 75% which can change based off of MSF reporting (the mortality rate is likely to be the same unless the virus actually changes itself that’s why a static amount would work).

So now I would calculate it as:

Cases: (CDC/WHO reporting x 2.5 under reported multiplier) so (7178 – American/Senegal/Nigeria Cases) x 2.5 = 17945

Mortality Rate: Static 75% (can be changed based off of MSF but its doubtful that Ebola changes it mortality rate over time)

Deaths = Cases x Mortality rate, so 17945 x 0.75 = 13,458

Also note: in the swine flu pandemic CDC/WHO only reported 5% of deaths
http://www.smh.com.au/world/sw…

This should be a good baseline to get a good idea of how this is epidemic is going on the true numbers.

How is the Mortality Rate for Ebola Calculated?

Check out the “Statistical Measures section of this wikipedia article”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E…

“On 23 September, the WHO released a revised and far more accurate CFR of 70%, derived using data from patients with definitive clinical outcomes.”

The wikipedia article points to this source:http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/1…
Which says: “we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73)”

So they’re VERY confident that the current fatality rate is between 69 and 73 percent (70.8% average).

10-13-2014 Updates

No Ebola in Istanbul, Turkey: http://www.todayszaman.com/latest-news_nigerians-suspecting-ebola-in-istanbul-leave-turkey_355627.html

Ebola in Virginia likely Negative: http://www.nbc12.com/story/26700701/2-va-patients-tested-for-ebola-tests-likely-negative

Ebola self quarantine in Payson, Arizona ending in 10 days

No Ebola in Santander, Spain: http://www.eldiariomontanes.es/cantabria/201410/11/paciente-ingresada-valdecilla-pasado-20141011102509.html

No Ebola in Boston, Massachusetts: http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/0fe2aa964583486aae3a20c7a4798312/MA–Medical-Center-Closed

5 New cases in Boston, Massachusetts: http://www.wcvb.com/news/medical-crews-surround-aircraft-at-logan-airport/29093968#ixzz3G3onsShO

No Ebola in Boston, Massachusetts: http://news.yahoo.com/no-ebola-scare-bostons-logan-airport-cdc-214305818.html

No Ebola in Poland: http://www.gazetawroclawska.pl/artykul/3607699,ebola-w-lodzkim-szpitalu-pacjent-ktory-opisal-objawy-jest-pijany,id,t.html?cookie=1

2 Unconfirmed cases in Canada: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ebola-like-symptoms-seen-in-2-people-isolated-in-ottawa-belleville-1.2797055

1 Unconfirmed Case in Kansas City, Kansas: http://www.kctv5.com/story/26775426/hospital-officials-kansas-city-patient-at-risk-for-ebola?clienttype=generic&smartdevicecgbypass

Now adding Transport Cases as an Orange Icon Biohazard-Transport Case

Updated Key: KEY

Updated Archive Map

10-12-2014 Updates

Texas has 1 More confirmed Ebola Case: http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/s1012-texas-health-care-worker.html

Boston, Massachusets has 1 Unconfirmed Case of Ebola:  http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/boston-area-clinic-quarantined-after-patient-displays-ebola-signs-paper/ar-BB8VXtb?ocid=ansnewsreu11

Texas case has been added.

Map maintenance has been done. Only current cases are now showing. Let’s pray we don’t get more !

Ebola in Dallas Texas, Again

I have added the updated map icon with the new Dallas Case. There are many news links, keep them coming and I’ll add them in a post later on today. Second confirmed Ebola case in the United States. Let’s hope this is the last “Breach of Protocol” we have to deal with!