What are the True Ebola Outbreak Numbers?

As an example, you can calculate the true numbers using this method:

Calculate for a more accurate number would be to get the total amount of cases and add a x2.5 multiplier in the highly affected West African countries: Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea (as that is what the CDC/WHO have stated as under reported to corrected multiplier of cases). The 2.5 multiplier will stay till cases stop being exponential.

2.5 x stated here: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/previe…

It has also been known that Sierra Leone and other countries are under reporting deaths to reduce panic and the mortality rate is slowly dropping over time which makes no sense because it was about 80% at the start and slowly dropping to 45%. I would use MSF/Doctors without borders cases to deaths as a correct mortality rate:


They reported: 1408 confirmed and 342 survived which is around a 75% mortality rate even with care. So I would set the mortality rate at a static 75% which can change based off of MSF reporting (the mortality rate is likely to be the same unless the virus actually changes itself that’s why a static amount would work).

So now I would calculate it as:

Cases: (CDC/WHO reporting x 2.5 under reported multiplier) so (7178 – American/Senegal/Nigeria Cases) x 2.5 = 17945

Mortality Rate: Static 75% (can be changed based off of MSF but its doubtful that Ebola changes it mortality rate over time)

Deaths = Cases x Mortality rate, so 17945 x 0.75 = 13,458

Also note: in the swine flu pandemic CDC/WHO only reported 5% of deaths

This should be a good baseline to get a good idea of how this is epidemic is going on the true numbers.